How Underrepresented Voters Could Shape the 2024 Election

The presidency may be determined by razor-thin margins in swing states this November. Voters from groups traditionally less likely to turn out – such as non-college-educated individuals, low-income Americans and voters of color – could play a pivotal role in the outcome.

Our panel explores the key issues driving engagement among these underrepresented voters, the challenges they may face, such as voter suppression and misinformation, and their potential impact on swing state results.

Moderated by Jane Coaston, contributing opinion writer, The New York Times; fellow, USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future.

With:

Mike Madrid, political consultant; author, The Latino Century: How America’s Largest Minority is Transforming Democracy; fellow, USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future

Eugene Scott, host, Axios Live; former national political reporter, The Washington Post

Learn more about the Dornsife Dialogues and sign up for the next live event here.

Transcript

00:00:00:12 - 00:00:32:01

Unknown

Welcome to the podcast version of Dornsife Dialogs, hosted by the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences. Conversations feature our distinguished scholars, alumni and other thought leaders discussing the fascinating issues that matter to you. You can also find video recordings of these discussions on the USC Dornsife YouTube channel. We begin this Dornsife dialog with an introduction from interim Dean Mo Alma Jha.

00:00:32:03 - 00:00:57:06

Unknown

Welcome back to Dornsife Dialogs. I don't know about you, but I've been hearing whispers of a presidential election in America. The media blitz is focused on only a handful of swing states, and polls suggest that three weeks out, the candidates are running neck and neck. When we examine these polls, we find recurring narratives about the American electorate preferences for certain policy positions.

00:00:57:08 - 00:01:27:08

Unknown

The ways that values shape opinions and the changing demographics of each party's base. But beneath the headlines and the polling data, there are groups of voters who have been largely overlooked. Groups that have traditionally been less likely to turn out on Election Day. Low income Americans. People who haven't been to college. And people from underrepresented minority populations. Their voices may be less prominent in the national conversation, but they just might tip the scales.

00:01:27:10 - 00:01:51:14

Unknown

Exploring complex issues like this one is where research universities can play an outsized role. They are places where we are encouraged to dig deeper and to follow the truth without worrying about clicks and views. And while there is a place for punditry in the national dialog, I think we all stand to benefit from a little more expertise and a lot more civility in our information diet.

00:01:51:16 - 00:02:18:10

Unknown

This is what our Center for the political future here at USC, Dornsife is all about. And we're always excited to partner with them on our Dornsife Dialogs series. The conversations never disappoint. So today, we've brought together experts to unpack what's driving underrepresented voters, the barriers they face, and why their influence in this election could change everything. Our moderator is Jane Coast.

00:02:18:12 - 00:02:42:10

Unknown

Currently serves as a fellow at the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future. Jane is a contributing opinion writer at the New York Times, as well as an on air contributor for CNN's Chris Wallace Show. She has reported for Vox and her work has appeared on MSNBC, ABC, NPR and in the National Review. So I'll turn the program over to Jane to introduce our panelists.

00:02:42:16 - 00:02:50:23

Unknown

And thank you, as always, for spending time with us here at USC Dornsife.

00:02:51:01 - 00:03:14:05

Unknown

Hi, everyone. So happy to be here. So I want to introduce our panelists. We're going to start by talking to Mike Madrid. He is a nationally recognized political consultant and an authoritative voice on Latino voters for more than 30 years. In 2020, Madrid co-founded the Lincoln Project, which is a Republican anti-Trump organization. He served as a fellow at the USC Center for the Political Future.

00:03:14:05 - 00:03:37:03

Unknown

In spring 2021. He is a senior fellow at UC Irvine School of Social Ecology and the author of The Latino Century. Published by Simon and Schuster in June of this year. Eugene Scott is a host at Axios Live, where he travels the country interviewing political and policy leaders. He was previously a senior political reporter for Axios, covering 2020 for swing voters and voting rights.

00:03:37:03 - 00:04:00:19

Unknown

Perfect for our conversation. And Eugene has spent more than 20 years covering politics at the local, local, national and international levels. And he's also a fellow at the Harvard Institute of Politics. Eugene, Mike, thank you for joining me. Thanks for having us. So I want to get started with a question for Eugene, because it's it's a two part one.

00:04:00:20 - 00:04:40:02

Unknown

So first, which underrepresented voter groups do you think are going to have the most significant impact on swing state results this year? And when we say underrepresented, what do we mean? Jane, thanks so much for that question. Really glad to be here. And a part of this conversation, had you asked me that question six months ago, I would have said and Gen Z and young voters who I still believe are going to have a huge impact on this election, but asking me today which underrepresented group is going to have the biggest impact on the election?

00:04:40:03 - 00:05:07:15

Unknown

I would say black and Latino men, and I hope I'm not stealing my thunder and making that point. And I and I think it's a group that is going to have that biggest impact because it feels like a group that both parties are targeting in very different ways, significantly and to to an extent that we don't see them focusing on other groups.

00:05:07:15 - 00:05:35:11

Unknown

You may remember in 2020 there was so much energy on maybe like suburban voters in particularly suburban moms. And I feel like black and Latino men have replaced perhaps that group as a primary focus of the candidates. And when I say underrepresented and I and this ties to my first answer, I think of underrepresented groups as in a group that does not have a strong history of voting and turning out.

00:05:35:13 - 00:06:19:12

Unknown

We know that women vote at higher rates than men. And so there's a real effort to increase participation rates for men, particularly black and Latino men. Mike, what do you think? Well, I mean, without saying I want to second that motion, I think Eugene put it really, really well. Let me let me kind of add a little bit more texture to that because this is foundationally different than any campaign I can remember in the past 30 years, especially as we're recognizing with the shifting coalitions in this country demarcated primarily by what we call the diploma divide, those with college degrees are moving markedly towards the left.

00:06:19:14 - 00:06:46:03

Unknown

Those without college degrees equally as quickly to the right. Black and Latino men make up the largest and fastest growing group of the blue collar workforce. Latinos particularly have lower college education rates than any group in America that are turning 18 at rates faster than any other group. This is a group that has been historically unreliable for Democratic constituencies for 30 years.

00:06:46:03 - 00:07:19:06

Unknown

They've tried very hard, very desperately to get these voters to increase their civic participation and voting rates to very little effect with very little success. Now they're demonstrating a much stronger proclivity to be supporting a Donald Trump. And the question remains as to whether or not they will show up for a Republican nominee and a Republican nominee like Donald Trump when they're showing much stronger support levels for this candidate than we've seen amongst nonwhite constituencies in the past.

00:07:19:08 - 00:07:44:13

Unknown

So one of the really fascinating things is, as part of this diploma divide that's reshaping the country is we are seeing the Democratic Party actually becoming more monolithically white, relying much more on white voters, white college educated voters, specifically white college educated female voters, even more specifically. And we're likely to see one of the largest, if not the largest gender gap in the history of American politics this November.

00:07:44:15 - 00:08:03:13

Unknown

And Republicans are increasingly relying on people of color that have a lower turnout history, a lower propensity of vote history, as we call it, to help them push them over that that the margin of victory. So it's a little bit more than academic. We're actually seeing some of this manifest on the ground with get out the vote efforts.

00:08:03:15 - 00:08:21:22

Unknown

You're seeing Democrats kind of being a lot more choosy in who they're trying to turn out to vote. They don't want to trump Republican votes in a lot of these communities. That was unheard of just a few years ago. And Republicans, for their part, don't have any history of being in a lot of these communities. So they don't have much infrastructure that they can rely on to actually turn out these votes.

00:08:21:23 - 00:08:43:16

Unknown

So both parties are both have an advantage and a disadvantage for the same reason It's all going to manifest itself, I think, on who's going to turn out, whether these lower three, lower likelihood voters do show up. And of course, that's correlate to being underrepresented. And I think one of the most fascinating things is, in all likelihood, this is not specific to this one electoral contest.

00:08:43:18 - 00:09:03:05

Unknown

We've been seeing this kind of building for the better part of a decade. It's just become much more measurable now. And I think it's going to change the way we politic. It's the change the way the both parties build their infrastructure. And in all likelihood, it's going to change the policies and the candidates that both parties put forth are going forward.

00:09:03:07 - 00:09:23:13

Unknown

Mike, I want to start with you and then Eugene, I'd love for you to chime in. What are some of the specific challenges that low income Americans face in participating in the electoral process? Because I think across the board, if we think about this, not just in terms of rural, urban or in terms of college educated, not college educated, but talking specifically about being low income.

00:09:23:16 - 00:09:48:04

Unknown

I think that this is a group that is often left out of voting altogether and their needs are often not centered. How many times have we heard from Donald Trump about the beautiful voters? So how can you know the barriers that low income Americans face and what kind of challenges did they face in the first place? Mike? I'm going to offer what might be a little bit of a unique answer to that, but I think the data is really bearing this out.

00:09:48:06 - 00:10:18:04

Unknown

There's a believability problem, and it's particularly acute in the Democratic Party. We saw this in the New York Times Siena poll, which was released just a couple of days ago, even though a wide swath of voters of color believe that, quote unquote, the Democratic Party understands people like me, the Democratic Party scores really, really low marks on whether or not these same voters believe that the party can or will do anything about it to change their lives.

00:10:18:06 - 00:10:50:14

Unknown

And so for a very long time, these voters have been hearing from the Democratic Party, believing the Democratic Party, but probably being let down about the results and the lack of change that they perceive is affecting their lives. Conversely, what you have is Donald Trump, who's getting with Hispanic men specifically 37% support of Latino voters, which is in a historically high range, but only 30% of his voters believe that he actually understands problems facing people like us.

00:10:50:16 - 00:11:16:12

Unknown

There's literally a seven point gap between people who think they cannot stand. Voters like him and who are actually voting for him. And that's why I say I think there's a real strong believability problem. It's that these voters are becoming numb or immune to the idea that the parties are actually either willing or able to do anything for them, even if even if they believe that they understand those problems.

00:11:16:14 - 00:11:46:03

Unknown

So to me, this believability problem, I hate the term apathy because I don't believe it's apathy. I just believe it's a general disaffection, whether no longer believing politicians or that government itself can do anything descriptively to better their lives. And that's the danger for our institutions. It's danger for the confidence and trust we have and in the belief of our government, because you have to have that at very high levels in order to keep democracy going.

00:11:46:05 - 00:12:06:18

Unknown

So I think there's some unique challenges that are developing. Again, a lot of the sentiment is particularly acute with the very young. But they, again, are not looking to politicians to actually change their lives. And once you what you agreed to that sort of a belief system, it's not a very far leap to say why vote in the first place just doesn't make a difference.

00:12:06:20 - 00:12:47:18

Unknown

Eugene, what do you think? I'm trying to answer truthfully in a way that doesn't get me in trouble. I think I think working class voters know that they are not the primary demographics historically that candidates seek to turn out. They I think when working class voters say, I don't think the parties care about me, they are not as far off as party leaders might suggest.

00:12:47:19 - 00:13:12:00

Unknown

You know, we very often hear candidates talk about what they will want to do for the middle class. Very rarely do candidates explicitly say, this is what I want to do for poor people. And this is because we know middle class voters, college educated voters vote at higher rates than working class people and people who have not gone to college.

00:13:12:01 - 00:13:43:07

Unknown

And so you are asking a group or groups of people to engage with a process that just has it prioritized and certainly doesn't center them. And that can be a real challenge in terms of whether or not they determine that this is worth their time and their energy when they could be investing in other things. And lastly, I'll say this piece, and this is not a jab as much as it is just a fact.

00:13:43:07 - 00:14:11:05

Unknown

We know that a lot of media consumption, at least historically, has been consumed primarily by college educated professionals opposed to working class people. And so the learning curve a lot of times in terms of just figuring out what's going on and who these individuals are is steeper for a working class people, not because they are less intelligent, it's just less familiar.

00:14:11:07 - 00:14:42:12

Unknown

And so you're dealing with people who have to perhaps take extra steps to think about what's going on in ways that are unique to them. Yeah, I think that's a really good point. And I think also it's challenging and this is something I think about all the time. Even when we're talking about what working class means. We have successfully stratified that that Republicans think we're talking about coal miners and Democrats, We're talking about waitresses.

00:14:42:17 - 00:15:12:00

Unknown

And they're both right. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, it's fascinating because, you know, I write I've written identity politics is probably the area I'm most fascinated by. And I'm not here to tell people what they are and what they aren't. But I will say, I'm sure we all I have talked to people who maybe view themselves as more working class or blue collar who I'm not quite sure actually do.

00:15:12:00 - 00:15:38:04

Unknown

Right. Like there was there's been yeah, there's a real sense. It's like you didn't you know, you didn't go to college, but you run a Toyota dealership. Like, that's the perfect example, right? I mean, we know people who didn't go to college, but who make six figures now, like close to half a million. And but their core and their values are working class.

00:15:38:04 - 00:16:05:02

Unknown

I mean, one of them is the vice presidential candidate on the GOP side, right. You know, he's like, I went to an Ivy League and I worked in Silicon Valley, but my grandmother is from Kentucky, so that's who I am. And so that so it's very difficult. That's very fascinating in terms of how we decide those things. And there are also I mean, we all know that there are people with master's degrees struggling to hit like $40,000 or $45,000 in teaching school.

00:16:05:02 - 00:16:23:03

Unknown

And. Right. And so I don't think anyone I mean, I was going to say, I don't think anyone would consider a teacher working class, but maybe like early childhood education, like a head start teacher, I don't know. Right. It's that it's really confusing and it's based on where you are. Nurse Right. Well, I mean, it depends on where you are.

00:16:23:03 - 00:16:47:08

Unknown

And so, yeah, you have different ideas about what that means. Mike I want to ask you, are there any notable differences on the issues that motivate underrepresented voters in urban areas versus rural areas in swing states? Well, that's a really good question. I mean, I'm sure that there are going to depend on on which swing state, of course.

00:16:47:10 - 00:17:13:09

Unknown

For example, in Pennsylvania, you've got to be for fracking. I mean, the people that are working in the energy patch and fracking are increasingly nonwhite. It's a large Puerto Rican constituency there. It's probably fracking is not nearly the issue in Georgia or Nevada as it is in Pennsylvania. But you do have to again, the common thread, I think, that I've found with a lot of underrepresented groups is that working class agenda.

00:17:13:09 - 00:17:32:09

Unknown

And let's be mindful, I mean, just to the other part of the conversation, which I thought was really insightful, we're calling it the diploma divide for a reason. We don't call it the income divide, right? There's a lot of people who do not have a diploma, college degree that are making higher incomes, that do have blue collar values and vice versa.

00:17:32:10 - 00:18:04:17

Unknown

It is literally the act of college and attending and graduating from college that changes political behavior or not. And that that's the demarcation point. So when we're talking about underrepresented, whether it's kind of rural poor in the outskirts of the the collar counties of of Atlanta, Georgia, or whether it's in Erie, Pennsylvania, or in, you know, outside of Maricopa County, the through line is about, I think, what could loosely be called the blue collar culture.

00:18:04:19 - 00:18:34:21

Unknown

It's a commitment to these industries and to these people rather than one specific policy per se. Although, like I said, fracking, I think is a great example. It's going to play very differently in these different communities. But they're both central. They're both central to to communicating with people who are not college degreed. Eugene Now I'm going to say this because I'm aware that being misled by misinformation doesn't know a party and does not know.

00:18:34:21 - 00:19:20:23

Unknown

Well, we have recently learned that some of our richest citizens are very gullible. That's all I'll say. But what role do you think, if any, does misinformation play in suppressing turnout among underrepresented voters, and how can this be combated effectively? It's a huge role. I mean, the reality is, as you know, that everybody's affected by disinformation. And I think I was interviewing the head of black voters matter, and I'm pretty confident that if if all of us had to take an exam of like which ads are real or which ads have been tampered with, like we would get some wrong because it's just getting it's just so good at this point.

00:19:21:00 - 00:20:02:07

Unknown

And I in terms of impersonating people's voices, it's just out of control right now. But I think when you don't have and I know I'm very biased as a journalist, but when you don't have a healthy news diet or a regular news diet, your idea of what is a reliable outlet and source just isn't there. And so, you know, I've had friends and family members send me links that I could I could almost immediately tell this isn't a reputable news website, but if you don't regularly consume these, you won't be able to detect that.

00:20:02:07 - 00:20:35:08

Unknown

And the reality is people who are more working class and don't regularly engage news, especially like the news print media, I guess it's weird to say print at this point because it's still it's online, are perhaps susceptible a little more in ways that people who regularly consume news aren't. Mike, What lessons do you think can be drawn from successful voter mobilization efforts in previous elections that were aimed at underrepresented groups?

00:20:35:08 - 00:21:11:18

Unknown

Because we've seen 28, 2012, like you've seen these big pushes to get previously underrepresented groups to vote. And you see that again in 20. You saw that in 2020 and in 2016. So what have we learned? What works, what doesn't? I really like that question because I think there are still so many people from our cities, the voting age eligible population that are either unregistered or don't vote even in our record high turnout elections that I'm not sure we can say with with a high degree of confidence that it's any of us really successful.

00:21:11:20 - 00:21:38:15

Unknown

I mean, there are certainly some that are more successful than others. But again, I think a lot of this has to do with the fact that we rely on the political system itself to drive and engage people to believe and buy in and support it, even though people don't. And I think that is the biggest challenge. So some of those things that are the most successful are those things that are driven largely by popular culture.

00:21:38:17 - 00:22:08:04

Unknown

When it becomes sort of a cultural phenomenon to engage and be involved in it, rather than having your typical PSA to register and vote to make it something that's important from a community perspective. Oftentimes on things that aren't directly political, not advocating for or against a piece of legislation, not advocating for or against a party, not advocating for or against a candidate, but rather advocating for or against something that where the community sees some overwhelming sentiment.

00:22:08:06 - 00:22:33:07

Unknown

For example, some of the largest bursts of voter turnout and registration we saw I have seen over the course of the past 30 years or so have sometimes been when the community is under attack 20 1994, for example, as a perfect example of Latino mobilization that catalyzed the multigenerational, you know, voting bloc voting registration numbers exploded at that time.

00:22:33:09 - 00:22:57:20

Unknown

You can see that, for example, in maybe a foreign policy crisis, as we're seeing in the Middle East with younger people, specifically, where they're not necessarily voting for or against legislation. But there's such an external shock that people feel beyond, though, their their political identity, that they engage in something that they wouldn't otherwise engage in. Now, the challenge is to do that aspirationally.

00:22:57:22 - 00:23:33:21

Unknown

It's easy when the community feels that it's under a threat or under attack. But that's not a healthy way to build democracy or civic engagement. And I'm not too certain that other than a couple of big, exceptionally charismatic candidates that we see that happening or have happened in the course of our lifetimes. Think of Obama specifically in 2008 might have been one of those generational moments, but beyond that, we're not really seeing that because, again, there's just such a disbelief and distrust in the institution that we're going to have to find ways to find political solutions are nonpolitical.

00:23:33:22 - 00:24:06:06

Unknown

Through nonpolitical means. Eugene, what do you think when people talk about economic factors and kitchen table issues? I always get a little bit annoyed because lots of things are kitchen table issues. But how do you think economic factors like inflation and job market conditions or more importantly, our perception of inflation, inflation and job market conditions? How do those influence the political priorities of low income, working class, middle class voters in swing states?

00:24:06:08 - 00:24:36:11

Unknown

I was having this conversation this morning with a good friend who is a senior policy adviser for a senator, a Democratic senator, and he was expressing his frustration with what he would say has been a relatively ineffective job of the Democratic Party, including the vice president and President Biden, of really speaking to the very real economic anxieties of working class voters in the country right now.

00:24:36:13 - 00:25:04:08

Unknown

We could continue to say inflation's not really a thing the stock market is doing as well as it is. And just pointing out all of these other examples that support the facts of where the economy is. But the reality is there are single moms with two kids that feel very differently right now, and the messaging to them has just not been as effective as it perhaps could have been.

00:25:04:10 - 00:25:46:02

Unknown

When people say that they are doing that, they made more money during the Trump administration or they feel like they make more less money now, selling them a bunch of like stats or facts, telling them that that's not true and it's not working. People feel not believed and unheard and as a result, they they very well may vote for the candidate who does hear them and make them feel considered, even if what what they are saying is less than true based on stats.

00:25:46:04 - 00:26:09:16

Unknown

And so, you know, economic anxieties is a phrase that a lot of us became incredibly familiar with in 2016 and frustrated with in a lot of ways. But the reality is it's real. I was at the Clinton campaign. There was like, it's the economy, stupid. And it's it's very much going to play a factor in how people vote this year.

00:26:09:18 - 00:26:29:10

Unknown

Yeah. Can I speak to that a little bit? Yeah, I have to, absolutely. Because I also want to ask you, because I think that that question of perception is really important because we remember under, you know, during the Trump administration, trumpet routinely, you know, trumpet stock market gains or different things that the same thing will happen under Biden.

00:26:29:10 - 00:26:52:15

Unknown

And now it's bad. So it's it seems to me that in part like, yes, people are struggling, but there's also perception issue here. And I think that that's challenging for some people to understand. But, Mike, please. Yeah, I don't believe it's perception at all. I think it's absolute reality. Let me explain why. And again, there is a unique window with COVID and who blames what for COVID and what happened with crashing the economy.

00:26:52:20 - 00:27:23:11

Unknown

That's absolutely true. But look, during the 85% of the Biden administration interest rates tripled. And we say inflation was up six or 7%, but it was up six or 7% a year for three years. That means our currency devalued by at least 20%. So inflation may now be down to two or 3% now, but that's off of 20% loss of value from, you know, three or four years ago.

00:27:23:12 - 00:27:48:01

Unknown

So the idea that that there's a perception that things are more expensive and is quantified to be false. And when people say, like in polling, it's the economy, overwhelmingly, if you look at the crosstabs, overwhelmingly it's an affordable no problem. We are creating more jobs. But what is the point of having a job if you can't afford to live on that job?

00:27:48:03 - 00:28:17:17

Unknown

And people who live not even paycheck to paycheck know that like this reality is their reality. And it is. It is it is painful and it is deep. One in five Hispanic men are employed in the construction industry or a related field. Now, when interest rates triple, that's a gut punch to 20% of Latino households from the get go, let alone the increase in rents that have gone up, the price of housing, which is that exploded over those years.

00:28:17:19 - 00:28:41:10

Unknown

And again, I can't drive this. How hard enough the devaluation of our currency. We all know it's not perception. We all know that things are more expensive. Go out and buy a meal and tell me it's it's not more expensive. Of course it's more expensive. Everything is more expensive considerably. And so when you're at the lower end of the economic ladder, you are you are not immune to this.

00:28:41:12 - 00:29:06:18

Unknown

So you feel it more you are more responsive to price increases. And that's why, again, New York Times Siena poll, only 20%, 20% of Latinos said that the economy was in good or excellent condition. 20%, that means 80% don't believe that at all. And they've got very good reason to. It's their reality. And it may not be our reality, but it's absolutely their reality.

00:29:06:20 - 00:29:28:09

Unknown

I mean, it's it's the reality of anyone who has attempted to go to a cocktail bar in the last night. I wish I was speaking about happy hour, which probably said something about me. But Eugene, you and me both, you know, at a certain point, I have started to notice that my glass of prosecco did get more expensive.

00:29:28:09 - 00:30:01:04

Unknown

But it just did. It just did. So I'm interested, Eugene, because we've been hearing a lot about voter engagement among communities of color and how that may have changed since 2020. But I think that something else that's interesting to me is that we're seeing everyone going after communities of color. I think that there was kind of this idea when I was, you know, many moons ago in the nineties that African-American voters for Republicans were just kind of like, ideally they don't vote, but we don't really try to go after them.

00:30:01:04 - 00:30:24:08

Unknown

That's changed. That's changed completely. So what are the factors driving these changes and how has voter engagement changed with communities of color since 2020? Now, this is such an important question. Well, one, as we all know, while historically the electorate has been looked at as black and white, this country is much more diverse than that and much more nuanced than that.

00:30:24:08 - 00:30:50:06

Unknown

And the fact that we have a candidate running who would would be the first Asian president speaks to that. There's outreach, at least for the Democratic Party, specifically towards Asian American voters who were very key in helping deliver Georgia in 2020. And so there's just nuance happening. Even the Latino voter outreach, you know, I was a political reporter in Arizona for years.

00:30:50:08 - 00:31:16:23

Unknown

And for so often when people thought about Latino voters, they only thought about the Southwest. Well, where we met. Well, we know that there are lots of Latino voters in North Carolina. Right. And and other demographics. There's a real concern about air voters in Michigan. And so communities of color is being looked at far more broadly than black and white identity as was noted earlier, all of us are multiple things.

00:31:16:23 - 00:31:44:19

Unknown

And so, like the GOP knows that they are strong with working class voters. Historically, they've prioritized white working class voters and, you know, rural places. But but since 2016 and early 2020, they've come to realize, hey, there are working class voters in Las Vegas. They are not white and they are not rural, but they would be attracted to our message if we focused on them.

00:31:44:21 - 00:32:14:02

Unknown

Same thing with black men in Philadelphia and Detroit. And so there just has been much more nuance in terms of how these parties speak to voters of color, recognizing that despite the fact that the Democrats continue to have a stronghold on like college educated black women, there are so many other types of voters of color besides that voting bloc.

00:32:14:04 - 00:32:39:08

Unknown

Mike, what do you think are the most important ways that both parties can adapt their outreach strategies to reach non-college-educated voters? You know what? What do you think is really worth focusing on? Because I think that it's an error to think that if you're non-college educated, you don't exist alongside everybody else and you don't have a lot of different issues on your mind.

00:32:39:08 - 00:33:00:18

Unknown

But obviously there are going to be issues that resonate more deeply. What do you think those are and what are the best ways to talk about them? Yeah, certainly. So let me let me say, I think broadly, I'll start there then I'll nail down the specifics broadly. The party that is able to speak to a multi-ethnic working class in this country is going to be the dominant party of the next generation.

00:33:00:20 - 00:33:25:21

Unknown

I believe that the Democratic Party right now is really struggling with the working class piece. And despite its increasing diversification, I think the Republican Party is really struggling with the multiethnic piece. And the tensions within both coalitions are really going to be exacerbated on both of those fronts as we continue down this transformation into this new reality. Those, I think, will be the battlegrounds in what used to be moderate versus conservative.

00:33:25:21 - 00:33:58:23

Unknown

Moderate versus liberal. It's really going to be those fights between the parties on those tuitions that will define sort of what we used to call centrist or more to the right or left. So having said that, one of the things that I find, particularly hopeful in this troubling time is that a lot of what you're seeing from voters, if you look at black and Brown voters and you do like a blind taste test or blind poll tests, let's say you would find that more often than not, they are the more moderate voters in both parties.

00:33:59:01 - 00:34:23:10

Unknown

And that's really, I think, a positive development, because so much of what we have begun to scratch each other's eyeballs out on as a people are on these cultural issues. And as we start to see the nonwhite share of the vote grow, the potential of us getting back to some of these working class issues, I think grows. Now, the Democrats will approach it, I think, the way that they historically have.

00:34:23:11 - 00:34:43:19

Unknown

They'll talk about greater unionization rates, project labor agreements, the need to have a bigger, you know, social safety net. They'll talk about health care and child care in terms of a working class issue. That's all very legitimate. That's a good thing. That's a healthy thing. That's the perspective of those that believe that, you know, we should have a stronger hand of government in making our society better.

00:34:43:21 - 00:35:07:08

Unknown

Republicans, for their part, will hopefully get back to a time of talking about things like tax policy and regulatory relief and trying to create entrepreneurship. I think it's really fascinating to hear Kamala Harris's opportunity economy. One of the centerpieces, talking about giving tax credit and tax cuts to business owners and to corporations in order to give employees ownership in the company.

00:35:07:11 - 00:35:30:11

Unknown

I mean, that's that's straight in 1980s Jack Kemp Republicanism. I think that's good because there are policy solutions that are trying to reach out to the working class through through a right left spend spectrum. And what I think Kamala Harris is doing is kind of through the center. So I think I think as long as we get back to these economic working class issues broadly, I don't think that there's a silver bullet.

00:35:30:17 - 00:35:50:23

Unknown

There's certainly some that work better. But as long as we're having a debate of ideas on class issues again and we've got a very far away from most of that, I think over the course of the past decade, certainly, but probably the last 20 years, generally, I think we will see a much more moderating influence in our politics.

00:35:51:00 - 00:36:13:21

Unknown

We could talk about, you know, taxes on tips, where there's some common agreement, tariffs. You know, Trump's tariff policy is obviously, I think, appropriately lambasted. But we have to remember his first round of tariffs have all been kept intact by the Biden-Harris administration because they believe in them. So there is some there is some economic populist issues that are recurrent on both the right and the left.

00:36:13:21 - 00:36:42:01

Unknown

And when we focus on those, I think we do we do ourselves a lot of good in terms of not only healing the body politic, but also in decreasing the polarization that is torn the country apart. Yeah, I think a lot about that intersection between class and cultural issues, though I will say some some things I think are interesting is that occasionally we think that there is a class you get to where then you get to care about cultural issues.

00:36:42:01 - 00:37:09:02

Unknown

But let's keep in mind this state, with the largest percentage of same sex couples raising children, Mississippi, like we think all the time about how this is kind of a it's a hobbyhorse of mine. So as I march here, I'm going to bring it up. We sometimes think that, you know, you get to a certain income bracket and then you care a lot about trans rights or abortion or LGBT rights or cultural issues writ large.

00:37:09:04 - 00:37:29:14

Unknown

But when you talk to people up and down, you know, I you know, Obergefell did not have some sort of financial ranking that you needed to get to before you could get married. And so I think it's important to think that cultural issues are very divisive and culture wars are perfect for politics because they are inherently unsolvable. You can't win and you can't keep fighting.

00:37:29:16 - 00:37:55:17

Unknown

But I do think it's important to remember that many of the people we're talking about who are concerned about the costs of groceries are also thinking about, you know, the cost of being, you know, getting gender affirming care or they're thinking about the cost of, you know, facing religious discrimination. And so, you know, I think it's important that all of this is interwoven, but that that is just my hobbyhorse.

00:37:55:19 - 00:38:21:00

Unknown

So I'd like to get know. That's such an important point. That's such an important point that I need to remember more. I think very often our elected officials think either or and. It's just not how how significant it is varies depending on the voter, but it really does matter. Well, yeah, I think it's important to acknowledge that there is and there always has been a blue collar working class culture in our society.

00:38:21:02 - 00:38:47:22

Unknown

And we used to in the eighties, as Republicans call them, Reagan Democrats. These were these were Democrats who were union members working in these industries who were directly appealed to on cultural values, not necessarily socially conservative values, but on issues like Clinton's talk. Bill Clinton was masterful at this, playing by the rules, right? Showing up to work, the blue collar cultural value is as long as I play by the rules, I don't need to get rich.

00:38:47:22 - 00:39:04:14

Unknown

But if I do the right things, my kids can have a better life than I had. However, we view that to be, and that's the promise of America. That's a cultural value a little bit different than our rich, by the way. But but that's what blue collar working class values, that culture that glue has always been. I'm not too sure.

00:39:04:14 - 00:39:24:01

Unknown

We believe in that as much anymore. I think that's that's a good point. And it's this is a conversation we could be having for the next 6 hours. And regrettably I'm pretty sure that we all can't stay for 6 hours. But, you know, often we can keep doing this. So I'm going to bring up we've got some great questions coming from the audience.

00:39:24:03 - 00:39:52:15

Unknown

And so I am interested in thinking about let's start with a question from Diana, who asks, Do you think the significant early voting in Georgia? What do you think that means? Anything, the upcoming results? I think to me, it tells me this is going to be a really, really, really high participation election, more so than 2020 perhaps, But Eugene, what do you think?

00:39:52:17 - 00:40:22:05

Unknown

Yeah, I was going to say, we obviously do not know who these votes are for. I think it's worth noting that Trump, who blasted early voting and mail in voting in 2020, has warmed up to the idea. And so it's safe to assume that some of those voters are supporters of his. But I think what we do know, or it would be fair to guess, I guess we won't know until it's all said and done, is that we're probably going to break some records.

00:40:22:05 - 00:40:44:04

Unknown

I mean, we have broken a record. Georgia has already broken that early day, the early voting record, but people are engaged and I think that is fast, fascinating and telling because we know that six months ago, like they just people were not engaged like this. And they were telling us repeatedly in surveys that they didn't know if they were going to vote or that they knew they were not going to vote.

00:40:44:05 - 00:41:08:21

Unknown

And we are seeing that no longer be the case based on how many people are already voting. Yeah, and let me let me say this. I think that's exactly right. But I think even our conceptions of what high turnout elections mean is going to change. We are in a period of extended high turnout elections that began really in 2018, the highest midterm election in over a century.

00:41:08:23 - 00:41:30:03

Unknown

2020, the presidential election two years later was the highest turnout election ever in all of American history. Then 2022 was the second highest midterm election behind 2018. We're on track to have very high turnout election. But I want to really caution people that trying to discern who is voting and how they're voting is a really it's a fool's errand to make.

00:41:30:05 - 00:41:53:03

Unknown

First of all, because the trend line has been completely disrupted with 2020. We don't know what any of this means. And the idea that somehow high turnout elections benefit like the Democrats, for example, which has been conventional wisdom, was disproved in 2020. Yes, Donald Trump lost, but Republicans picked up the House in the highest turnout election in the history of the country.

00:41:53:05 - 00:42:17:07

Unknown

And if you look at these low turnout elections, ever since then, Democrats have done particularly well. So this diploma divide is, again, shape reshaping who is benefiting from low and high turnout elections. Democrats are now increasingly benefiting from high turnout elections and and Republicans are increasingly benefiting from high turnout elections. Yeah, I think I will also say this is just a word to those listening.

00:42:17:12 - 00:42:43:10

Unknown

If you see anything about exit polling, ignore, ignore, don't write it. That doesn't mean anything else. Until we like the results will be the results. Exit polling tells us markedly nothing except for analysis that we can do later, where I bring up fun facts like 1% of African-American women in the state of Pennsylvania voted for Trump, which, as I've said repeatedly, I believe is the number you could fit in a gym.

00:42:43:12 - 00:43:04:19

Unknown

And so I think let's see. Next question. Actually, it's a question for Mike. Congratulations on your book. What are some interesting trends you're seeing among Latino voters right now? I think there's a couple of them. The most interesting thing is this gender gap, because I think it's going to really change the contours of not only our politics in the very short term, but in the medium and long term as well.

00:43:04:19 - 00:43:23:05

Unknown

I think it's going to change society, frankly. Latinos not only have the largest gender gap in voting, they have the largest diploma divide. As I mentioned earlier, we also have a very, very strong proclivity to vote for women and female candidates. I think most of you guys know that we have more Latinas in our California state legislature than Latinos.

00:43:23:07 - 00:43:45:14

Unknown

We are almost at parity in a red state like Texas, a 5545. It's 55 men, 45 women. Florida is not that far off. States like New Jersey, overwhelmingly women, red states like Utah, the leadership in both minority parties, Democratic Party or Latinas. So there's also this trope about your machismo driving sort of this rightward shift, I think is quantifiably not true.

00:43:45:15 - 00:44:20:01

Unknown

Hillary Clinton was one of the highest vote getters we've ever had. There is just this growing sense that Latinas are the future. I believe that. I think we're seeing it in data and demography. Another, I think thing to consider is that abortion rights, reproductive rights is a winner amongst Latinos. It always has been. It's becoming more pronounced and so this a similar effect where we're seeing third and fourth generation Hispanic men shifting to the right is also having a compounding effect with women who are moving more to the left because of these cultural issues.

00:44:20:03 - 00:44:43:16

Unknown

So there's a lot at play. There's a lot of, I think, again, challenges to the idea that nonwhite voters, minority voters vote a certain way is manifesting in more than just, you know, a traditional Republican Democrat format. It's also about gender. It's also about college degreed. It's also about culture. And I think it's it's an exciting time to be watching this, these voters.

00:44:43:16 - 00:45:06:23

Unknown

But yeah, that's I think a couple off the top of my head. We've got some questions about Asian-American voters and where they stand. I think that that's I there's actually some interesting polling data that came out that Asian that Kamala Harris is performing better with Asian-American voters than Joe Biden was. But, Eugene, any thoughts on kind of where that community might stand?

00:45:06:23 - 00:45:32:21

Unknown

I mean, I say community realizing that there is a massive group of people with a wide variety of experience. Absolutely. It is fair to say that Asian-Americans lean Democratic, but not to the degree that black voters obviously do, or even Latino voters. And to your point, there are some communities within the Asian-American community that are more conservative like Vietnamese voters.

00:45:32:23 - 00:46:12:17

Unknown

But it has been said, I don't know which data supports this, but historically, a big indicator of whether you will vote is if you come from a family with a history of voting. And historically, many Asian-Americans have, especially the kids of immigrants, have said that they they didn't grow up seeing their parents voting. And so as a result, both parties, Democrats, quite frankly, more than Republicans, have, have seen this community as a huge opportunity, especially considering that Asian-Americans are the fastest growing ethnic group in the country.

00:46:12:19 - 00:46:46:01

Unknown

And so you're just there, just so many voters out there to engage and get into the process. They like they the electoral process, especially in some of these swing states that would decide who the electorate, where the election is. I think the idea that certainly not all, but even most Asian-American voters are in New York and California just is not as supportive by just, you know, demographics in the census as it used to be.

00:46:46:02 - 00:47:06:04

Unknown

So as you mentioned in my introduction, I'm a senior fellow at UC Irvine School of Social Ecology that we're doing a lot of work on this. I think one of the again, the Asian Pacific Islander vote, Eugene, correctly characterize how it's breaking a lot of this, I would argue, is also correlate to the diploma divide much higher college attainment and degreed voters.

00:47:06:06 - 00:47:29:15

Unknown

But also I think one fascinating thing, if you look at Orange County, California, where there are three House seats in play, there's a very good chance that all three of those will be held by Asian-Americans at the end of by the end of November. One Democrat, two Republicans. A lot of that is a function of a high number of college educated Asian voters in both New York and in California, as Eugene was pointing out.

00:47:29:17 - 00:47:58:15

Unknown

So Eugene and actually both of you, are you seeing differences in voting decisions? So we're talking about within communities of color, are you seeing those differences that we see with white people between Gen Z and boomers? Like are we seeing the same types of divides that we talk about all the time with larger communities? Are we seeing those with communities of color, color as well?

00:47:58:17 - 00:48:21:08

Unknown

I mean, when I when I talk to focus groups and swing voters and just man on the street, I mean, one of the big differences is, I mean, communities of color do do talk about racism and xenophobia much more than white voters. And it's a very real concern of theirs. It's not something that is being made up or their imagination.

00:48:21:10 - 00:48:52:01

Unknown

It's you know, that Stopasianhate was a real concern for people. Police brutality against black and Latino people was very real for voters. What is interesting, I don't think to the same scale, but a conversation related to racism that is happening within, you know, the white community. If could say that it's reverse racism and not just at the working class level, which is why we've you know, that there was so much attention paid to the overturning of affirmative action.

00:48:52:02 - 00:49:29:04

Unknown

There is some real concern about DTI initiatives post 2020 having gone too far. And that's why you see a number of Republican candidates speaking to those concerns that exist within white voters. I do think one thing that is really interesting among black voters of color, black and Latino, but what I'm seeing mostly within black voters is there is more conversation happening among Gen Z about the United States role on the international stage than we perhaps saw among boomers.

00:49:29:04 - 00:49:58:06

Unknown

And so, you know, we're all on college campuses and there is some concern, to say the least, about America's role in Gaza, America's role in Sudan, America's role in Haiti, and ways that we just don't hear older voters talking about at the same level. Mike, I've got a polling question for you, which is always fun because polling drives everyone insane.

00:49:58:08 - 00:50:23:11

Unknown

Is it true collecting, changing dynamics in underrepresented voters and in general, like when we're looking at polling, are we seeing what underrepresented, underrepresented groups are thinking or is it how does that work? Yeah, well, I could speak to only two Latinos specifically because that's my expertise. So let me do that because you're going to start seeing a lot of people playing fast and loose with Latino numbers.

00:50:23:13 - 00:50:54:14

Unknown

And I write I write extensively on this in my book on how they do it. Basically, the idea of Latino identity is very fluid. It's much more fluid than that than certainly African-American and or Asian Pacific Islander identity. And it changes mostly generationally. And those changes are very significant. So you could if you oversample third generation English exclusive of Latinos, you're going to get a very decidedly different outcome than if you're talking to first generation Spanish speakers.

00:50:54:16 - 00:51:19:06

Unknown

And both Partizans have figured this out. So there's a whole cottage industry on the left from the Democratic circles of of using a pollster, one firm specifically, but others are jumping in on the game too. Of of doubling the number of Spanish language respondents in their polling to give themselves a much more leftward skew, especially on things like immigration and immigration related issues.

00:51:19:08 - 00:51:53:09

Unknown

Now what you're seeing is a real big divergence from credible public pollsters that aren't partizan that are showing this rightward shift of this movement towards the Republicans. At the same time, you will see very low levels of Republican support in these same polls. So the methodological questions that you hear pollsters fighting about, about waiting and balancing, those are true, but there aren't there's not a whole lot of discussion on something like language that the appropriate number of interviews in Spanish, for example, when it's really central to getting the community right.

00:51:53:11 - 00:52:30:14

Unknown

So most standard pollsters will say 17 to, 20%. I think 20% is a little bit high of Spanish language interviews. But a lot of these Democratic pollsters will use 35% Spanish language responses, and they come up with a very different outcome. And they will argue, well, this is a better reflection of the Latino community. There hasn't been enough of discussion about this of behavior amongst pollsters, because where most of the fights on polling tend to be more on the scientific nature of the underlying weighting of the instrument weighting TMG weighting of the instrument.

00:52:30:16 - 00:53:01:17

Unknown

There's been almost no discussion about things like Spanish, the appropriate composition of a Spanish language model in a poll. So the answer is yes and no. Right. It's like, how do you determine which is underrepresented, which is not? If you skew towards a certain generation, you're going to get a very different political perspective, both all of them with a very legitimate claim to representing the Latino community, although they may not be reflective of the entire community.

00:53:01:19 - 00:53:29:13

Unknown

So my least it's I wouldn't say related to that One thing. I also think really that it's really disrupting our understanding of how race plays out at the at the voting booth as we are much more we are in a much more multiracial society and acknowledging the long held reality that people can be two or even more races.

00:53:29:15 - 00:53:57:23

Unknown

And that is factoring in seeing how a right like the who thought who would have thought. And, you know, people are fascinating. You know, young people are fascinated when we talk about how I believe it was the 2000 census. I think it was maybe it was earlier, but that you couldn't mark multiple races. And so I our our one could argue that our understanding of how people of color vote has kind of been off because we were we were not accurately classifying people of color.

00:53:57:23 - 00:54:27:04

Unknown

And so now we all of us know people who are combinations of ethnicities that we just didn't even think about very often when we were kids and suggesting that they would vote a certain way because of how people voted 10 to 20 years ago just doesn't apply as much anymore. I mean, the reality is the Democratic nominee is a biracial candidate in a combination that many people just usually don't think about.

00:54:27:06 - 00:54:58:23

Unknown

I think about it all the time, but I'm crazy to see the polling numbers of people being like people of one or more race. I'm like, Yes, welcome to me. Filling out any form before like 2008. Yeah. So I want to end with a question for both of you, Eugene. Sure. Looking beyond 2024, how might the increasing focus on underrepresented voters shape long term strategies for both political parties, which I think is a great question.

00:54:58:23 - 00:55:21:22

Unknown

I mean, I think after 2012, we all remember the GOP autopsy, where in 2016, where they're like, never mind. Well, are we getting back to a point in which we're thinking about how that type of outreach again, or is something else going to happen? So I'm very eager. I'm not skeptical. Regardless of what my tone says, I really don't know what will happen.

00:55:21:23 - 00:56:16:12

Unknown

I'm very eager to see if a lot of the pushback and concerns and questions that black and Latino men are have about these candidates actually translates to actually showing up. Right. I mean, people can tweet and talk in barbershops and, you know, at family events and like not vote. And and if that is what happens, I don't know that there will be as significant of a shift to address the needs of these these voters if if they don't have any stake in the game, if if we do see a outcome that is deeply influenced by where black and Latino men do on Election Day or before, I think it's fair to expect both parties really

00:56:16:14 - 00:56:50:02

Unknown

up the ante on reaching these voters when it comes to the midterms, because, as Mike noted, you know where elections are every two years now in terms of importance to these parties. And that that I think will be a very real shift despite all of that. One thing we know, and I was talking to some folks about it earlier today, is arguably the most influential demographic in politics, be it, as you know, state houses or the White House are donors.

00:56:50:04 - 00:57:31:18

Unknown

And so what I don't want to overplay how much parties will listen to voters when the reality is some of the folks there, they're just always going to listen to the most are their donors. Mike, what do you think? Well, I mean, I look, I've got a great find myself agreeing a lot with Eugene here. I just I think we are at a moment in time where there's a generational inflection point where kind of old guys like me have a very different and unique understanding of the world and the way voting behavior works compared to these emergent voting younger voters that are really changing and challenging some of the basic assumptions of what it means

00:57:31:18 - 00:57:57:01

Unknown

to be nonwhite. This is a step in the process of becoming a nonwhite majority country, which we will be in 15 short years. And this this dynamic is going to start happening extremely fast going forward now. Again, 38% of Latinos are under the age of 30 years old. It's the largest ethnic demographic in America. It's starting to really, really happen quickly.

00:57:57:03 - 00:58:19:23

Unknown

And I think that one of the great ironies we talked about the 2012 autopsy correctly, but but understand something. The 2012 autopsy was saying, if we don't become a more diverse party quickly, we are going to be irrelevant. And then Donald Trump is elected in large part, at least in some part as a part of the backlash to that kind of thinking.

00:58:20:01 - 00:58:51:13

Unknown

But but the Democrat the Republican party has become a considerably more diverse party under Donald Trump than at any time since before the 1964 Civil Rights Act. And it's becoming more so every year. And at the same time, the Democratic Party is becoming more monolithically white. So, again, the the the conclusion the purpose of the 2012 autopsy was right, but they were right for the wrong reasons.

00:58:51:15 - 00:59:14:06

Unknown

And it's challenging both parties. This class really does take a much greater role in an increasingly diverse society, racially diverse society. Both of you. Thank you so much for your time. Thank you so much for your eloquence. Thank you so much for the work that you both do. This has been a great conversation that I would absolutely continue for, as I said, six more hours.

00:59:14:08 - 00:59:36:17

Unknown

Thank you so much. Thank you so much to USC Dornsife for hosting us and looking forward to finding out what happens with, you know, all of this in about three weeks or so. Thanks for having us. Thank you. We hope you enjoyed this episode of the Dornsife Dialogs podcast. Please leave us a rating and a review wherever you listen.

00:59:36:19 - 00:59:39:14

Unknown

Thank you for your support. By Don.